Matthew Hyde is a senior energy economist, market analyst, and strategic advisor with over 30 years of experience across the global oil, refining, and lubricants industries. He is the founder of RefinEx Market Solutions, an independent consultancy delivering expert insight, modelling tools, and executive training to clients navigating complex markets and the energy transition.
During his career at BP, Matthew held senior roles in both the Group Economics and Trading divisions, as well as a long tenure at Castrol, BP’s lubricants business. He has led global projects across market analysis, scenario development, price modelling, and economic forecasting—working at the interface between commercial, technical, and leadership teams.
As Advisor – Oil and Refining in BP’s Economics Division, Matthew provided strategic insight into global oil market dynamics and was responsible for compiling weekly briefings for the BP Board. He developed long-term scenario outlooks for refining, contributed to the company’s flagship Energy Outlook, and helped shape strategy across multiple business units. A major achievement was his leadership in building a fully functioning global linear programming model for long-term refinery forecasting, used to support energy transition strategy.
Matthew also pioneered the use of AI-enhanced tools to accelerate market interpretation and insight delivery. He acted as an ambassador for the integration of machine learning and large language models (LLMs) to streamline weekly market reports, enhance commentary accuracy, and ensure senior leadership had timely access to relevant intelligence. His work bridged traditional economics with AI to improve speed, precision, and insight for high- stakes decision-making.
In his 14 years at Castrol, Matthew specialised in refining trends and base oil market forecasting, developing price matrices and procurement strategies that supported business resilience and new market entry. He also created statistical forecasting models and Power BI dashboards used by global leadership to evaluate price trends, supplier dynamics, and forward planning scenarios.
Earlier roles at BP included Manufacturing Analyst in Bitumen and Coke Technology, where Matthew worked with refinery planners, traders, and product specialists to optimise crude flexibility and bitumen blending performance. He also held positions in logistics, performance consultancy, and crude trading analytics, where he developed real-time front- office tools still used by BP traders globally.
Matthew is recognised for his ability to make complex technical and economic issues clear to diverse audiences. He has delivered tailored training programmes in refining, oil markets, and product economics to interns, technical specialists, and senior executives. His approach combines deep technical credibility with a practical, data-driven mindset, supporting better business decisions through evidence-based insight.
Today, through RefinEx Market Solutions, Matthew provides strategic advisory, scenario modelling, decision dashboards, and bespoke executive training. His clients span fuels, lubricants, and emerging low-carbon value chains, all facing the challenge of navigating market volatility and transition dynamics.
He continues to champion the responsible integration of AI and analytics into economic strategy, forecasting, and communication.
